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Showing posts from October, 2011

Interest Rate Curve Balls

Predicting interest rate movements correctly is hard. Predicting them for a living is harder still. But getting it wrong is nowhere near as painful as the experience of those who lose their own money based on someone's forecast.
A year ago, the Reuters news agency polled a group of people closer than just about any other community to those who actually decide rate movements. These were 16 money market dealers who do business directly with the US Federal Reserve.1The so-called primary dealers — banks or broker-dealers — are market makers for government securities. They consult directly with the US central bank and Treasury about funding the budget deficit and implementing monetary policy. So if you wanted an informed view about the interest rate outlook, these might be the people you would call on first, which is what Reuters did when it asked the dealers for their forecasts for Treasury bond yields three, six and 12 months ahead.
Back in late September 2010, the dealers came up with…