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Showing posts from February, 2015

Market-Predicting Gurus Worse Than Flipping A Coin

Yet another study showing how poorly prognosticators do. There's too much noise in the markets in the short run to have any forecasting methodology with reliable predictive ability. And if there were such a methodology, why would anyone share it rather than make huge profits for themselves?
- Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA
Gurus Achieve An Astounding 47.4% Accuracy (From Forbes.com) "After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better.
It’s hard to imagine that the average market expert isn’t able to at least match the track record of a coin flip, but it’s true. Figure 1 has, by name, the relative perform…