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Is a Double-Dip Imminent?

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Consumer sentiment is down. Unemployment is not. Housings starts are terrible. A double dip is on the lips of many. Since this is an election year, each side of the aisle has reasons to portray the future as gloomy.

There is an alternative view. Markets on average recover greatly. Yes, maybe this time is different, but then again, probably not. I like to say that 'this time is different' are the four most costly words an investor can utter.

If this market recovery is average, then there is substantial market appreciation from today's valuation over the coming years. Moreover, alternative strategies-chiefly lending your money to the U.S. government is fraught with low interests and ultimately high probability in principal decline, if individual bonds are not owned and held to maturity.

This is not a prediction, but we need to keep things in perspective. It's difficult to be objective when 'you're in it.'

Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA
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