Skip to main content

Behavioral & Psychological Aspects of the Retirement Decision

An important paper has recently released by the Social Security Administration called Behavioral and Psychological Aspects of the Retirement Decision. It delves into some of the non-financial reasons why people choose to retire when they do. Following are some highlights from the paper.

Many future retirees do not understand the interplay between claiming age and Social Security benefits. Even when they understand the claiming rules, many people claim benefits when it is not economically advisable to do so, as more than half of retirees claim benefits at 62. 

Retirees tend to anchor on ages that have some retirement significance. Why do so many people claim to be "burnt out" at work when they turn 62? Why not 60 or 64 or 68? It's because 62 is the age of eligibility for Social Security benefits. But what if they were to anchor on age 70 instead? Might they push through the burnout, as they would if it occurred at 55 or 60 when retirement clearly was not feasible?

People compare alternatives as either a gain or a loss from the point of reference. When the option to claim benefits at age 68 was framed as resulting in a monetary gain from an age-65 reference point, only 38% of survey respondents chose 68 as the preferred retirement age. But when retiring at 65 was framed as resulting in a monetary loss from the age-68 reference point, 57% chose 68 as the preferred age. This confirms the notion that losses hurt more than the equivalent gains feel good. It also suggests that we might flip our framing of scenarios that involve delaying benefits. Rather than telling clients how much more they'll have if they delay to 70, we might adopt 70 as a reference point and show them how much less they'll have by claiming benefits early. One of the reasons SSA has stopped using the breakeven framework to discuss claiming options with clients is that it was causing clients to claim at 62 so they could start out "ahead." By looking at projected income at specific ages in the future, and by showing them how much less they'll have by claiming at 62, the decision can be framed more accurately.

People do not make accurate predictions of their future emotions. Studies have shown that football fans tend not to be as happy for as long as they would expect after their favorite team wins a big game, nor do they tend to be as unhappy for as long as they would expect following their team's loss. Likewise, pre-retirees think retirement will make them happier for a longer period of time than is actually the case once the initial euphoria wears off and they become bored or miss their friends at work. Conversely, people who hate their jobs tend to overestimate how miserable they actually are, failing to consider upsides such as work perks and the steady paycheck which they now take for granted. In other words, people retire early both because they think working longer will be worse than it is and because they think life in retirement will be better than it is. The grass isn't always that much greener...

People tend to overweight the value of rewards they can receive right away. Studies have shown that when the opportunity to receive a reward (such as money or a prize) is relatively far in the future, people state their intentions to choose a longer, later reward. But as soon as the reward opportunity moves closer to the present, they tend to reverse their preferences and choose the smaller, sooner reward. The closer individuals are to their preferred retirement age, the more future income they are willing to sacrifice in order to retire sooner. In other words, they become more impulsive as they approach retirement. The obvious remedy to this, of course, is to start educate people sooner--at age 50 or 55. Although it is unrealistic pre-commit to a specific retirement age, the previous discussion about reference points suggests that simply having a retirement age in mind may affect retirement behavior.

Popular posts from this blog

Last Week Was Not One To Miss

Last week the Dow rose 7.3% last week amid earnings reports from many companies, as reported in the Wall Street Journal ( http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124782681174757379.html ). For most companies, it's not like the reports were necessarily good. It was that the news was not as bad as expected . This rapid rise in the market occurred despite poor economic news, including rising unemployment now predicted to go north of 10%. To many investors, this seems counter-intuitive: poor economic news and declining earnings reports compared to the same time last year yet the market goes up markedly. How come? It's quite simple actually. The market looks forward and reacts to new and unknowable information . So even though the news was bad, much of it was not as bad as expected . Thus the new information positively changed market expectations and prices adjusted upward. Unless you can predict the future, as investors we must stay invested through good times and bad to ensure we experien...

Are We All Socialists Now: Government Intervention and Stock Market Returns

As a recent Newsweek cover asked, "Are We All Socialists Now?" And if so, should U.S. equity investors be alarmed by the prospect of greater government intervention in the economy? Historical data looking at this very question may be surprising to you. Click the link below to watch a short 6 minute video, which provides some objective comparisons of stock market returns from the more free-market system in the U.S. compared to the returns from more interventionist governments from around the world. The evidence suggests that government intervention is just one factor among many affecting stock returns, and that an above-average degree of intervention is not necessarily associated with below-average returns. https://admin.acrobat.com/_a772887163/governmentinterventionandstockreturns/ To Your Prosperity ~ Kevin Kroskey

Bond Investors Misled by Wall Street Journal Article

In an article published today in the Wall Street Journal, entitled "The New Bond Equation," the author attempts to educate readers about the potential risks involved in investing in bond mutual funds, given the current economic environment. He writes: "As the financial crisis heads into its third year, investors in bond funds are facing some difficult choices. Investors usually turn to these funds for safety. But bond funds are facing a host of pressures that are driving down returns, raising long-term risk—and making it tougher to settle on the right investment strategy." While I agree with the author's statement above, he makes some statements that mislead bond investors. ( Click here to read the full article. ) For example, he writes: "....they’re buying vehicles that invest in intermediate-maturity bonds. These funds also typically hold a mix of government, mortgage and investment-grade corporate bonds, which spreads risk around. Even cautious intermedi...