Kevin Kroskey's Money & Mind

Yet another study showing how poorly prognosticators do. There's too much noise in the markets in the short run to have any forecasting methodology with reliable predictive ability. And if there were such a methodology, why would anyone share it rather than make huge profits for themselves?   - Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA   Gurus Achieve An Astounding 47.4% Accuracy ( From Forbes.com )   "After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy.   The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better. It’s hard to imagine that the average market expert isn’t able to at least match the track record of a coin flip, but it’s true...

Should you rely on “will power” to bequeath assets? The more complex your estate, the more ill-advised that choice becomes. Having only a will in place when you die may not be enough. As MarketWatch noted recently, research from the Williams Group (a major estate planning firm) indicates that estate fights reduce inherited wealth for as many of 70% of families. 1   Inheritance is no simple matter. In a simpler world, an individual with a $3 million estate could pass away and simply leave $1 million each to his or her children – enough said, over and done. But life isn’t so simple: one heir may deserve more money as a result of a disability or fate dealing out hardships, while another may truthfully deserve less due to his or her behavior, or his or her financial success.    If you feel one heir should receive more of your estate than another, that wish needs to be articulated in your estate planning. Stating these wishes before you pass away (the why, the how, ...

From assorted survey data, an interesting snapshot emerges. Women are taking action to approach retirement with greater confidence. Some recent, intriguing survey data indicates that women are planning their financial futures with some degree of pragmatism, but also with considerable motivation.  One of the key motivations, it seems, is receiving financial advice. Results from a new TIAA-CREF survey (and other studies) bear this out. The retirement services giant polled a random, national sample of 1,000 men and women age 18 and older for its 2014 Advice Matters Survey, and it found that 81% of women who had obtained financial advice were more likely to feel informed about retirement planning and retirement saving than women who hadn’t. Additionally, 63% of women who had received financial advice felt confident that they were saving sufficiently for retirement. 1 What kind of difference does financial advice make? A significant difference, it seems. In the big pi...

Roth & traditional IRAs won’t get 2015 COLAs, but other plans will. A little inflation means a little adjustment . As the Consumer Price Index is up 1.7% over the last 12 months, the federal government is giving Social Security benefits a 1.7% boost for 2015 and lifting annual contribution limits on key pension plans as well. 1 401(k), 403(b), 457 & TSP annual contribution limits increase by $500. You will be able to defer up to $18,000 into these plans in 2015. The catch-up contribution limit will also rise by $500 to $6,000 next year, so if you are 50 or older in 2015 you are eligible to contribute up to $24,000 to these retirement savings vehicles. (The above adjustments do not apply to all 457 plans.) 2 SIMPLE IRAs get a similar COLA . Their base contribution and catch-up contribution limits also go up $500 for 2015. The limit for the base contribution will be $12,500 next year, and the catch-up limit rises to $3,000. 3 Limits also rise for SEP-IRAs and Solo(k)s . Small b...

If you have saved and invested consistently for retirement, you may find yourself ready to leave work on your terms – with abundant free time, new opportunities, and wonderful adventures ahead of you. The thing to keep in mind is that the reality of your retirement may not always correspond to your conception of retirement. There will inevitably be a degree of difference. Some new retirees are better prepared for that difference than others. They learn things after leaving work that they wished they could have learned about years earlier. So with that in mind, here are a few of the little things people tend to realize after settling into retirement. Your kids may see your retirement differently than you do. Some couples retire and figure on spending more time with kids and grandkids – they hang onto that five-bedroom home even though two people are living in it because they figure on regular family gatherings, or they move to another state to be closer to their kids. Then the...

It is helpful to think of a combination of asset classes--emerging markets, U.S. or international stocks, treasury or corporate bonds, cash, etc.--as a recipe . And think of the individual funds that you own as the ingredients being used in the recipe. Both matter a great deal. And both determine the net investment results from your portfolio and how the food you eat will taste.   Emerging markets as an asset class have been a better performer than either US or international developed markets in 2014. But over the prior three years Emerging Markets had fallen out of favor and an unsophisticated investor may have not had the patience to realize the increased expected returns.   In October 2013 I wrote Emerging Markets and Kenny Rogers' "The Gambler,"     "If anything, one should consider increasing their targeted allocation to emerging markets, precisely because they have had such a bumpy ride recently. After all, price and value are inversely re...

Thomas Perls MD, MPH is the founder and director of the New England Centenarian Study, the largest study of centenarians and their families in the world. Dr. Perls has constructed the "Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator," which is available for free. Answers to the calculator questions can be provided to obtain a helpful gauge life expectancy and health-related behaviors. The Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator uses the most current and carefully researched medical and scientific data in order to estimate how old you will live to be. Most people score in their late eighties... how about you? The calculator asks you 40 quick questions related to your health and family history, and takes about 10 minutes to complete. At the end, you will be asked to create an account to store your answers.   Click here to go to the calculator. My personal life expectancy per the calculator...99 years. Grandpa Kroskey turned 98 in June. Need to put some more money in ...