Kevin Kroskey's Money & Mind

Few words characterize today’s financial markets like uncertainty. When overseas economic issues can rob investors of months of gains and speeches by Federal Reserve officials cause markets to flip-flop unpredictably, investors are left wondering what they should do. In an attempt to make major market movements work for their portfolios rather than against, some investors attempt to time the market. Market timing is the strategy of trying to predict future market movements to time buying and selling decisions. When markets are rallying or pulling back, it can be very tempting to try to seek out the top to sell or the bottom to buy. The problem is that investors usually guess wrong, missing out on the best market days or months. The last few months has been volatile. The S&P 500 goes down -6.0% in August, another -2.5% in September, but bounces back +8.4%in October. If you hit the eject button at the end of September, you lost out! Missing out on the market’s top-performi...

If you don't already read Jason Zweig's regular column in the Wall Street Journal, you should. He is one of the few financial journalists worth reading. His recent article on the psychology of the recent market drop is rational and instructive. ==== Click here to read the article in it's entirety: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/08/24/the-cruel-psychology-of-the-1000-point-drop/ See below for a snippet: Experiments have shown , for instance, that people believe cancer is riskier when they are told that it kills “1,286 out of 10,000 people” than when they hear that it kills “24.14 out of 100 people.” Hearing “1,286” immediately brings a large number of victims to mind, while “24.14” is simply a much smaller number. To notice that the first number is less than 13%, while the second is more than 24%, you have to focus on the denominators of the fractions and do some quick division. But your emotions will likely hijack your brain long before you get to that poi...

Yet another study showing how poorly prognosticators do. There's too much noise in the markets in the short run to have any forecasting methodology with reliable predictive ability. And if there were such a methodology, why would anyone share it rather than make huge profits for themselves?   - Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA   Gurus Achieve An Astounding 47.4% Accuracy ( From Forbes.com )   "After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy.   The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better. It’s hard to imagine that the average market expert isn’t able to at least match the track record of a coin flip, but it’s true...

It is helpful to think of a combination of asset classes--emerging markets, U.S. or international stocks, treasury or corporate bonds, cash, etc.--as a recipe . And think of the individual funds that you own as the ingredients being used in the recipe. Both matter a great deal. And both determine the net investment results from your portfolio and how the food you eat will taste.   Emerging markets as an asset class have been a better performer than either US or international developed markets in 2014. But over the prior three years Emerging Markets had fallen out of favor and an unsophisticated investor may have not had the patience to realize the increased expected returns.   In October 2013 I wrote Emerging Markets and Kenny Rogers' "The Gambler,"     "If anything, one should consider increasing their targeted allocation to emerging markets, precisely because they have had such a bumpy ride recently. After all, price and value are inversely re...

Below is a brief article from Weston Wellington of Dimensional Fund Advisors, reviewing the markets over the last year and concurrent headlines from the media. It always helps to keep things in perspective and not get caught up in the financial pornography that is put upon us. -Kevin Kroskey --------- For the twelve-month period ending May 31, 2011, equity investors around the world enjoyed the equivalent of blue skies and bright sunshine while the economic news was partly cloudy at best. Among forty-five developed and emerging-country stock markets tracked by MSCI, all but four had double-digit total returns (in US dollar terms), and twenty-six had returns of 30% or more. If someone had told us a year ago that global markets would stage such a broad-based rally, we would have been inclined to think that trends in employment, housing, and financial distress were about to take a pronounced turn for the better. It seems hard to argue they have done anything of the sort. ...

Small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks by a significant margin in most global markets last year but capturing the size premium required both patience and a willingness to ignore the advice from those claiming to identify the best-performing asset classes in advance. US small stocks got off to a strong start last year as the Russell 2000 Index jumped to a gain of 18.6% through April 23, more than double the return of the S&P 500®. But as stock prices wilted during the summer, small caps fell even faster and by August 24th both large cap and small cap indices were down roughly 5% for the year. A surprisingly strong rally during the remainder of the year drove the Russell 2000 up 31.5%, and for the year as a whole it was the best performance for US small stocks since 2003. The strength in small cap stocks caught a number of financial pundits flat-footed. An article appearing in the Wall Street Journal in mid-November 2009 claimed “small caps aren’t looking that cheap anymor...

It seemed so obvious. With the economy slowly recovering last year from the worst recession in decades and the federal government seeking to tap the credit markets for over $2 trillion to fund an ambitious spending program, both laymen and experts alike seemed to agree that interest rates had nowhere to go but up. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury note as of June 30, 2009 was 3.52%, down from 5.25% in June 2007 but well above the 2.09% level registered amidst the depths of the credit crisis the previous December. With retail sales and housing activity showing signs of gradual improvement, the only question appeared to be how much higher interest rates would go. Among fifty economic forecasters surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June 2009, forty-three expected the ten-year U.S. Treasury note yield to move higher over the year ahead, with an average estimate of 4.13%. Seven expected a rate of 5.00% or higher while only two predicted rates to fall below 3.00%. The result? The ...

Investors are often confronted with unexpected developments, and the last decade offers an abundance of examples. Ten years ago, for example, Brazil was on the verge of a currency collapse, and General Electric was among the largest and most admired firms on the planet. Who would have thought that Brazilian stocks would soar sevenfold during the subsequent ten-year period, while GE shares fell 70%? A lucky few may be able to exploit such extreme outcomes to enhance their investment results. But history offers compelling evidence that shows that those making concentrated bets on companies or countries are more likely to get blind-sided by unpredictable events. Markets have 101 ways to teach us the virtues of diversification. While sifting through our stacks of news clippings in preparation for our customary review of the year's events, we came across a number of tidbits from the more distant past that offer some lessons. These quotes turned out to be oopses by those who spoke o...

Through my experience as a Certified Financial Planner(r) in counseling clients and in staying abreast of changes of the financial product companies, it has become quite evident time and again that it is a lot easier to sell consumers what they think they want rather than to educate them on what they need. From insurance carriers and financial sales people selling 'guaranteed products' at exorbitant costs to mutual fund companies seeding multiple new funds and then promoting the ones that do well while silently closing the unsuccessful funds before they receive their Morningstar ratings, consumers are preyed upon and have to side step a mine field of damaging advice and products if they're to be successful and reach their life's goals. The Wall Street machine certainly isn't slowing down. Rather than educating consumers on market history, so they can learn why the negative returns from The Great Recession-- while not pleasant nor frequent--are in fact a part of ...

There was a good, short article in the Wall Street Journal this morning that I wanted to post. The article is entitled, "Reasons for Optimism Shouldn't be Shunned." Investors are emotional and find reasons to support the emotions they're feeling, ranging from overly pessimistic to overly optimistic. After 2008 most investors have been focusing on the negative and ignoring the positive. "Even though stocks are up nearly 50% since early March, worries about valuations, the dollar, inflation and corporate profits permeate market chatter -- chatter so loud you can barely hear all the good news." Click here to read the entire article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125287540315306843.html?mod=djemITP

Many academics consider the active-vs.-passive debate settled. Yet, despite the strong evidence supporting a passive, index-like approach, many investors still assume that skillful active management can increase returns, net of costs. The basis for a prescription of a passive investment strategy rests on scientific inquiry in the field of finance rather than on anecdotal evidence or 'good-sounding' stories told by the active mangers, media, supposed gurus, or others spouting investment pornography. The tests have been done and they are well documented. Unfortunately for many investors, the subjects of these tests are not lab rats, but real people with real money! Below are some common questions that can help clarify this debate and hopefully help you not to fall victim to the higher costs and subpar performance of active managers. Q: If an active manager can gather information and gain insight or knowledge through research into a company, shouldn't he be able to beat the ma...

It's common practice to look at a fund's total return number for a snapshot of what performance to expect, but that won't give you the full picture. Morningstar studies have shown that investors' actual gains frequently pale in comparison to reported total return numbers. This phenomenon frequently plays out among funds that attract assets after streaks of hot performance, only to see some investors get skittish at the first signs of underperformance . After a moment's though, even a novice investor will realize that this behavior is just the opposite of the mantra -- buy low and sell high. This practice can be more broadly attributed to bad behavior and lack of a plan or philosophy when it comes to investing. Investors are human and humans are emotional. As much as the logician in me would like to believe my left brain is working to drive my decision making, logic comes in after emotions are experienced to provide context for how we are feeling and not the other ...

Last week the Dow rose 7.3% last week amid earnings reports from many companies, as reported in the Wall Street Journal ( http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124782681174757379.html ). For most companies, it's not like the reports were necessarily good. It was that the news was not as bad as expected . This rapid rise in the market occurred despite poor economic news, including rising unemployment now predicted to go north of 10%. To many investors, this seems counter-intuitive: poor economic news and declining earnings reports compared to the same time last year yet the market goes up markedly. How come? It's quite simple actually. The market looks forward and reacts to new and unknowable information . So even though the news was bad, much of it was not as bad as expected . Thus the new information positively changed market expectations and prices adjusted upward. Unless you can predict the future, as investors we must stay invested through good times and bad to ensure we experien...