Kevin Kroskey's Money & Mind

Yet another study showing how poorly prognosticators do. There's too much noise in the markets in the short run to have any forecasting methodology with reliable predictive ability. And if there were such a methodology, why would anyone share it rather than make huge profits for themselves?   - Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA   Gurus Achieve An Astounding 47.4% Accuracy ( From Forbes.com )   "After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy.   The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better. It’s hard to imagine that the average market expert isn’t able to at least match the track record of a coin flip, but it’s true...

It is helpful to think of a combination of asset classes--emerging markets, U.S. or international stocks, treasury or corporate bonds, cash, etc.--as a recipe . And think of the individual funds that you own as the ingredients being used in the recipe. Both matter a great deal. And both determine the net investment results from your portfolio and how the food you eat will taste.   Emerging markets as an asset class have been a better performer than either US or international developed markets in 2014. But over the prior three years Emerging Markets had fallen out of favor and an unsophisticated investor may have not had the patience to realize the increased expected returns.   In October 2013 I wrote Emerging Markets and Kenny Rogers' "The Gambler,"     "If anything, one should consider increasing their targeted allocation to emerging markets, precisely because they have had such a bumpy ride recently. After all, price and value are inversely re...

As a new parent, I'm already gauging my child's development for rolling over, sitting up, speaking her first word -- 'dadas' just last week! -- and more against guidelines in the plethora of parenting books I have. This relative comparison gives my wife and I feedback as to how our little bundle of joy is doing. Later, we'll get this relative comparison and feedback from her school grades and achievement tests among other sources.   Investors however tend to be more simplistic in their feedback mechanisms. They often define success as "My account went up last month. That's great!" Or conversely, "My account went down. It was a bad month." What's missing from this is a relative comparison asking the question, "Did my account go up or down as much as it should have given how much risk I am taking?" This involves a relative comparison against a representative benchmark.   The S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA®) report m...

Walter Updegrave, in addition to being an award-winning journalist, speaker, author and senior editor of MONEY is a professional who truly understands the world of retail investing and communicates his thoughts in a manner meaningful to his readers. As an example, below is an excerpt from a recent   CNN Money release   based on a readers question “Should I hire a financial adviser to manage my retirement portfolio, and can I afford to?” “The answer depends largely on how comfortable you are going it alone -- and how good a job you think you could do overseeing your finances without help from a pro. Let's start with one key aspect of retirement planning: investing. As long as you're familiar with the concept of asset allocation and you're comfortable picking funds, you shouldn't have trouble building a diversified portfolio on your own. And you can get plenty of assistance short of hiring an adviser: These days most 401(k) plans provide tools to help you assess your in...

Stock prices slumped around the world yesterday [Monday, July 18], but shares of Apple Inc. shrugged off worries about a Greek government bond default and record gold prices and surged to an all-time high of $373.80. With a market value of over $344 billion, Apple has already shouldered aside Microsoft to become the world's largest technology firm measured by market capitalization and is now second only to energy giant ExxonMobil among US stocks. It has all happened so quickly that despite its heavyweight stature in the US stock market, Apple shares are still conspicuously absent from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Apple's innovative products are the gold standard for personal communication and entertainment gadgets, and the company's fresh approach to store design generates sales-per-square-foot numbers other retailers can only dream about. As the company goes from strength to strength and the billions pile up on the balance sheet, it's worth recalling how uninspi...

Limiting spending to interest or dividends received is a common idea that many retirees have about managing spending in retirement. This idea causes some retirees to reach for yield in both stock and bond investments. In an annual report for Berkshire Hathway, Warren Buffett wrote, "More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun." Pursuing an interest-and-dividend-only strategy is sub-optimal for a multitude of reasons, man of which I'll be explaining in an upcoming article to be posted at the Money & Mind blog. Meanwhile, click on the video below to listen to Ken French of Dartmouth College answer the question whether retirees should limit their spending to interest and dividends.

Weston Wellington of Dimensional Fund Advisors often displays an ability to make unique observations and simplify complex concepts not unlike Warren Buffet. Below Wellington looks through Berkshire Hathaway's annual report and Buffett's letter to shareholders and makes some unique observations about the Berkshire portfolio and underlying investment principles that the every-day investor can learn from. To Your Prosperity, Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Berkshire Hathaway released its 2010 annual report last weekend, including the letter to shareholders from Chairman Warren Buffett that is always eagerly awaited by the investment community. We are gratified to find that Mr. Buffett's legendary ability to simplify complex issues remains undiminished and his trademark wit is as sharp as ever. Financial journalists, eager for clues that might reveal Buffett's thoughts on where markets are he...

Small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks by a significant margin in most global markets last year but capturing the size premium required both patience and a willingness to ignore the advice from those claiming to identify the best-performing asset classes in advance. US small stocks got off to a strong start last year as the Russell 2000 Index jumped to a gain of 18.6% through April 23, more than double the return of the S&P 500®. But as stock prices wilted during the summer, small caps fell even faster and by August 24th both large cap and small cap indices were down roughly 5% for the year. A surprisingly strong rally during the remainder of the year drove the Russell 2000 up 31.5%, and for the year as a whole it was the best performance for US small stocks since 2003. The strength in small cap stocks caught a number of financial pundits flat-footed. An article appearing in the Wall Street Journal in mid-November 2009 claimed “small caps aren’t looking that cheap anymor...

It's that time of year when many of us are thinking about the New Year's resolutions we set for ourselves. This often means committing to improving one's lifestyle by losing weight or exercising more. Some investors could probably benefit from resolutions targeting their financial health as well. Just as many individuals endanger their well-being with bad habits, numerous investors suffer from ill-advised practices that are detrimental to their wealth. Perhaps a set of New Year's investment resolutions will lead to a more prosperous future. Everybody wants to be healthier, and many people want to be wealthier, but it's just not that easy. Most of us are creatures of habit and discover that making permanent changes in our behavior is surprisingly difficult. We need every possible mental crutch at our disposal to help us adhere to a new regimen; hence we establish mental road signs, such as New Year's resolutions, as behavioral aids. So, for those who find mak...

The article below is a timely one from Dimensional Fund Advisor's (DFA) Jim Parker, VP of DFA Australia. Though Ireland is a country there are many lessons to be learned from Ireland's missteps by the individual investor. ---- Reaching understanding on the right way to invest often starts with studying bad investment decisions. But the lessons are far less painful when they are built on others’ experiences. Recent events in Europe provide case studies on what can go wrong when a wealth-building strategy is built on too much debt , too little diversification and too little awareness of risk. Ireland in recent years, for whatever reason, became heavily dependent on a couple of industries – namely construction and banking. The IMF1 in a report this year described the causes of these imbalances as “rapid credit growth, inflated property prices and high wage and price levels”. Now, an economy is clearly much more complex than any individual and the ability of governments ...

Global diversification gives investors a valuable tool for managing risk and volatility in a portfolio. But smart diversification has an important side effect. It requires maintenance. In a given period, asset classes experience divergent performance. This is inevitable and, in fact, desirable. A portfolio that holds assets that do not perform similarly (i.e., with low return correlation) will experience less overall volatility. That results in a smoother ride over time. However, dissimilar performance also changes the integrity of your asset mix, or allocation—a condition known as “asset drift.” As some assets appreciate in value and others lose value, your portfolio’s allocation changes, which affects its risk and return qualities. If you let the allocation drift far enough away from your original target, you end up with a different portfolio. Once you form a portfolio to match your current investment goals and risk tolerance, you should preserve its structural integrity since as...