Kevin Kroskey's Money & Mind

Anybody who was surprised that the Federal Reserve Board decided to raise its benchmark interest rate in December 2016 probably wasn’t paying attention. The U.S. economy is humming along, the stock market doing well, the unemployment rate has fallen to a low level -- now considered to be 'full employment.' We are more recently seeing evidence of increasing wages as well. The rate rise is extremely conservative: up 0.25%, to a targeted range from 0.50% to 0.75%—which, as you can see from the accompanying chart, is just a blip compared to where the Fed had its rates ten years ago when it was north of 5%. Keep in mind the prime rate -- more commonly used in consumer finance -- is the federal funds rate plus 3%. So prime was north of 8% in 2007. The bigger news was the announced intention to raise rates three times next year, moving to a more “normal” 3% by the end of 2019. This is faster than prior market expectations, heading into the meeting, although still some...

Yet another study showing how poorly prognosticators do. There's too much noise in the markets in the short run to have any forecasting methodology with reliable predictive ability. And if there were such a methodology, why would anyone share it rather than make huge profits for themselves?   - Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA   Gurus Achieve An Astounding 47.4% Accuracy ( From Forbes.com )   "After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy.   The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better. It’s hard to imagine that the average market expert isn’t able to at least match the track record of a coin flip, but it’s true...

The excerpt below is from a keynote address gave in 2000 by "Uncle Milt" (or Milton Friedman as he's more commonly known). With all that is going on in Europe currently, it's not likely the question of whether the Euro is long-term sustainable will go away. --- "The euro is one of the few really new things we’ve had in the world in recent years. Never in history, to my knowledge, has there been a similar case in which you have a single central bank controlling politically independent countries. The gold standard was one in which individual countries adhered to a particular commodity—gold—and they were always free to break or to leave it, or to change the rate. Under the euro, that possibility is not there. For a country to break, it really has to break. It has to introduce a brand new currency of its own. I think the euro is in its honeymoon phase. I hope it succeeds, but I have very low expectations for it. I think that differences are going to accumula...

Predicting interest rate movements correctly is hard. Predicting them for a living is harder still. But getting it wrong is nowhere near as painful as the experience of those who lose their own money based on someone's forecast. A year ago, the Reuters news agency polled a group of people closer than just about any other community to those who actually decide rate movements. These were 16 money market dealers who do business directly with the US Federal Reserve. 1   The so-called primary dealers — banks or broker-dealers — are market makers for government securities. They consult directly with the US central bank and Treasury about funding the budget deficit and implementing monetary policy. So if you wanted an informed view about the interest rate outlook, these might be the people you would call on first, which is what Reuters did when it asked the dealers for their forecasts for Treasury bond yields three, six and 12 months ahead. Back in late September 2010, the dealers came ...

It's quite difficult if not virtually impossible to have forecasting abilities to consistently predict future economic scenarios. Even if a prediction about what will happen to our economy is done accurately, an investor is not done yet. In order to capitalize upon an accurate economic prediction, the investor must still translate the economic prediction into a successful investment strategy and must also get the timing of it correct. No small feat indeed. As we get through a political season where much in relation to our country's economics have been discussed or at least used in the negative political ads that seemingly permanently reside on my television, it's helpful to keep things in perspective and look at things objectively. Marlena Lee, Researcher with Dimensional Fund Advisors, examines historical data to test the relationships between fiscal deficits, interest rates, business activity, investment returns, and exchange rates in a video and/or podcast available b...

"The inflation-adjusted income of the median household—smack in the middle of the populace—fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009, even worse than the 1970s, when median income rose 1.9% despite high unemployment and inflation. Between 2007 and 2009, incomes fell 4.2%." The above paragraph is from a Wall Street Journal article describing the pain the American middle class has experienced over the "lost decade." The media has generally referred to the "lost decade" for the lack-luster results of the S&P 500 from 2000-2009. While I disagree that this time period was a lost decade for a well-allocated investor, I do agree with the author of this article that it was a lost decade in terms of real or inflation-adjusted income. In his autobiography, Alan Greenspan describes this phenomenon and says how the mass influx of labor from China and India kept prices and inflation relatively low world-wide for an extended period of time. The good news, he says, is tha...

We recently observed the first anniversary of the most shocking and terrifying week in most of our financial lives: the economic cataclysm of September 15-19, 2008. Even the greatest one-day stock market crash in history on October 19, 1987 did not shake us the way this Hell Week did, inasmuch as it was almost entirely contained in the equity market: the economy, the banking system, and the world at large, aided by a tsunami of liquidity from the Federal Reserve, rolled merrily along. The epicenter of the earthquake - at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets - turned out to be the whole earthquake. And the terrorist atrocities of September 11, 2001, even as they forced us to confront a whole new global geopolitics - and our position in the world as the target of an unfathomable crypto-religious hatred - had, after the initial shock, no lasting economic effect. But Hell Week 2008 shook the global financial system to its foundations. The previous week, the federal government had taken ove...

In support of Financial Planning Week which runs from October 5-11, 2009, the Financial Planning Association of Northeastern Ohio is pleased to announce a public showing of the movie I.O.U.S.A. ( http://www.iousathemovie.com/ ) at the Cedar Lee Theater in Cleveland Heights, OH. One of the missions of the FPA is to raise awareness about the the importance of personal financial planning and offer guidance in making financial decisions. As a Board Member of the association I support and encourage this pro bono event in our community. Tuesday, October 6, 2009 at 7pm Free Admission (with a suggested donation of $3 to go towards Cleveland Saves) Cedar Lee Theater 2163 Lee Road Cleveland Hts., Ohio 44118 Seating is limited, so please register at http://tinyurl.com/ydq99lh . (You must register to attend.) Although the movie is free, there is a suggested donation which will go towards Cleveland Saves, a local non-profit that encourages individuals and families to save money so that they can bui...

(Below is an excerpt from a Wall Street Journal article, written by James Grant--an esteemed market observer and usual pessimist--published on 9/19/09. In my opinion this article represents a minority voice in public economic comment today and should be heard.) From Bear to Bull: James Grant argues the latest gloomy forecasts ignore an important lesson of history: The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. Americans are blessedly out of practice at bearing up under economic adversity. Individuals take their knocks, always, as do companies and communities. But it has been a generation since a business cycle downturn exacted the collective pain that this one has done. Knocked for a loop, we forget a truism. With regard to the recession that precedes the recovery, worse is subsequently better. The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. To quote a dissenter from the forecasting consensus, Michael T. Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners, Greenwich, Conn.: "[T]he most import...