The Lost Decade for Family Income

"The inflation-adjusted income of the median household—smack in the middle of the populace—fell 4.8% between 2000 and 2009, even worse than the 1970s, when median income rose 1.9% despite high unemployment and inflation. Between 2007 and 2009, incomes fell 4.2%."

The above paragraph is from a Wall Street Journal article describing the pain the American middle class has experienced over the "lost decade." The media has generally referred to the "lost decade" for the lack-luster results of the S&P 500 from 2000-2009. While I disagree that this time period was a lost decade for a well-allocated investor, I do agree with the author of this article that it was a lost decade in terms of real or inflation-adjusted income.

In his autobiography, Alan Greenspan describes this phenomenon and says how the mass influx of labor from China and India kept prices and inflation relatively low world-wide for an extended period of time. The good news, he says, is that as these economies are continually developed and experience a rising middle class, world-wide wages, including those in America, will rise. The question always seems to come back to when.

As we wait, it's quite likely that the disparity between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' will continue to increase, as described in the article. If this trend continues, the societal and political implications may be great.

To Your Prosperity,

Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA

Bangladesh Butter Production Predicts U.S. Stock Returns

After reading the title of this post, my hope is that a look of disbelief is cast on your face. Of course butter production in Bangladesh has nothing to do with prediction of US stock market returns. However, through data mining all sorts of 'relationships' can be demonstrated. Many mutual funds, ETFs, and trading strategies are built upon these data mining strategies--most often to the harm of investors that utilize them. As Jason Zweig describes in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, entitled Data Mining Isn't a Good Bet For Stock-Market Predictions , "The stock market generates such vast quantities of information that, if you plow through enough of it for long enough, you can always find some relationship that appears to generate spectacular returns -- by coincidence alone . This sham is known as data mining." I recall in from my business statistics course in grad school, how I was able to show that ice cream consumption was correlated to the murder ra

Don't File Your Taxes Too Soon

I'd like to remind everyone to not be too anxious to file your taxes. Many taxpayers rush to file their tax returns as quickly as possible. Ordinarily, that’s fine. But if you own mutual funds, don’t file your tax return before March 1. In past years, revised 1099s were often issued, reclassifying distributions and/or their amounts. This was a huge headache for the investors who had already filed tax returns based on the original documentation. These hapless consumers found themselves forced to redo their returns and file amended tax returns, adjusting the amount they owed or were due in refunds - and paying their tax preparer additional fees to do the extra work. It looks like 2010 may be the same. Therefore, if you own mutual funds, do not file your tax return before March 1. By then, any amended IRS forms are likely to arrive, potentially helping you avoid the hassle and costs of filing an amended return. Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA

Paying for College and Getting Your Money's Worth

According to the Student Loan Marketing Association (more commonly known as Sallie Mae Bank), the average tuition, room and board at a private college comes to $43,921. Public tuition for in-state students at state colleges amounted to $19,548 (about half of which is room and board), with out-of-state students paying an average of $34,031. How are parents and students finding the cash to afford this expense? Sallie Mae breaks it down as follows: 34% from scholarships and grants that don’t have to be paid back, coming from the college itself or the state or federal government, often based on need and academic performance. Parents typically pay 29% of the total bill (an average of $7,000) out of savings or income, and other family members (think: grandparents) are paying another 5%. The students themselves are paying for 12% of the cost, on average. The rest, roughly 20% of the total, is made up of loans. The federal government’s loan program offers up to $5,500 a year fo

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