Kevin Kroskey's Money & Mind

Anybody who was surprised that the Federal Reserve Board decided to raise its benchmark interest rate in December 2016 probably wasn’t paying attention. The U.S. economy is humming along, the stock market doing well, the unemployment rate has fallen to a low level -- now considered to be 'full employment.' We are more recently seeing evidence of increasing wages as well. The rate rise is extremely conservative: up 0.25%, to a targeted range from 0.50% to 0.75%—which, as you can see from the accompanying chart, is just a blip compared to where the Fed had its rates ten years ago when it was north of 5%. Keep in mind the prime rate -- more commonly used in consumer finance -- is the federal funds rate plus 3%. So prime was north of 8% in 2007. The bigger news was the announced intention to raise rates three times next year, moving to a more “normal” 3% by the end of 2019. This is faster than prior market expectations, heading into the meeting, although still some...

As a new parent, I'm already gauging my child's development for rolling over, sitting up, speaking her first word -- 'dadas' just last week! -- and more against guidelines in the plethora of parenting books I have. This relative comparison gives my wife and I feedback as to how our little bundle of joy is doing. Later, we'll get this relative comparison and feedback from her school grades and achievement tests among other sources.   Investors however tend to be more simplistic in their feedback mechanisms. They often define success as "My account went up last month. That's great!" Or conversely, "My account went down. It was a bad month." What's missing from this is a relative comparison asking the question, "Did my account go up or down as much as it should have given how much risk I am taking?" This involves a relative comparison against a representative benchmark.   The S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA®) report m...

Limiting spending to interest or dividends received is a common idea that many retirees have about managing spending in retirement. This idea causes some retirees to reach for yield in both stock and bond investments. In an annual report for Berkshire Hathway, Warren Buffett wrote, "More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun." Pursuing an interest-and-dividend-only strategy is sub-optimal for a multitude of reasons, man of which I'll be explaining in an upcoming article to be posted at the Money & Mind blog. Meanwhile, click on the video below to listen to Ken French of Dartmouth College answer the question whether retirees should limit their spending to interest and dividends.

Weston Wellington of Dimensional Fund Advisors often displays an ability to make unique observations and simplify complex concepts not unlike Warren Buffet. Below Wellington looks through Berkshire Hathaway's annual report and Buffett's letter to shareholders and makes some unique observations about the Berkshire portfolio and underlying investment principles that the every-day investor can learn from. To Your Prosperity, Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Berkshire Hathaway released its 2010 annual report last weekend, including the letter to shareholders from Chairman Warren Buffett that is always eagerly awaited by the investment community. We are gratified to find that Mr. Buffett's legendary ability to simplify complex issues remains undiminished and his trademark wit is as sharp as ever. Financial journalists, eager for clues that might reveal Buffett's thoughts on where markets are he...

It's quite difficult if not virtually impossible to have forecasting abilities to consistently predict future economic scenarios. Even if a prediction about what will happen to our economy is done accurately, an investor is not done yet. In order to capitalize upon an accurate economic prediction, the investor must still translate the economic prediction into a successful investment strategy and must also get the timing of it correct. No small feat indeed. As we get through a political season where much in relation to our country's economics have been discussed or at least used in the negative political ads that seemingly permanently reside on my television, it's helpful to keep things in perspective and look at things objectively. Marlena Lee, Researcher with Dimensional Fund Advisors, examines historical data to test the relationships between fiscal deficits, interest rates, business activity, investment returns, and exchange rates in a video and/or podcast available b...

It seemed so obvious. With the economy slowly recovering last year from the worst recession in decades and the federal government seeking to tap the credit markets for over $2 trillion to fund an ambitious spending program, both laymen and experts alike seemed to agree that interest rates had nowhere to go but up. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury note as of June 30, 2009 was 3.52%, down from 5.25% in June 2007 but well above the 2.09% level registered amidst the depths of the credit crisis the previous December. With retail sales and housing activity showing signs of gradual improvement, the only question appeared to be how much higher interest rates would go. Among fifty economic forecasters surveyed by the Wall Street Journal in June 2009, forty-three expected the ten-year U.S. Treasury note yield to move higher over the year ahead, with an average estimate of 4.13%. Seven expected a rate of 5.00% or higher while only two predicted rates to fall below 3.00%. The result? The ...

In an article published today in the Wall Street Journal, entitled "The New Bond Equation," the author attempts to educate readers about the potential risks involved in investing in bond mutual funds, given the current economic environment. He writes: "As the financial crisis heads into its third year, investors in bond funds are facing some difficult choices. Investors usually turn to these funds for safety. But bond funds are facing a host of pressures that are driving down returns, raising long-term risk—and making it tougher to settle on the right investment strategy." While I agree with the author's statement above, he makes some statements that mislead bond investors. ( Click here to read the full article. ) For example, he writes: "....they’re buying vehicles that invest in intermediate-maturity bonds. These funds also typically hold a mix of government, mortgage and investment-grade corporate bonds, which spreads risk around. Even cautious intermedi...