Skip to main content

The Rise of Short-Term Rates

Image
By
While many market participants wait for the "inevitable" rise in short-term interest rates expected when the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, some investors may have missed the increase in short-term rates already underway as a result of market forces. 
 
Looking at the zero- to two-year segment of the yield curve—the segment that many believe will be most affected whenever the Fed "normalizes interest rates"—it may be surprising to see how much rates have increased since 2013.
 
In fact, the yield on the 2-Year US Treasury note has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2015, rising from 0.45% in January to almost 0.90% today.* The yield on the 1-Year US Treasury note has more than tripled, from 0.15% to more than 0.50% over the same period. The 6-Month US Treasury bill’s yield rose from a low of 0.03% in May to over 0.30% today. Yet, despite the higher rates, we have not experienced the conjectured financial storm in the fixed income market. 
 
The question of when the Fed will raise its overnight target rate is still open. Similarly, we can ask ourselves a more complex question: Will the market lead the Fed or is the Fed leading the market through setting expectations?






















Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA
 
This article adapted with permission from Dimensional.
*As of November 18, 2015. Source: Barclays Bank PLC.

Popular posts from this blog

Diversification: Disciplinarian of Disciplinarians

By
Disciplined diversification works when you do and even when you don't want it to. Diversification in effect forces you to sell the thing that has been doing so well in your portfolio and to buy the thing that hasn't. While this makes rational sense, it is emotionally difficult to execute. Think back to the tail end of 2008--were you selling bonds and cash to buy stocks? Most likely you weren't unless your advisor or some sort of automatic trigger did it for you. Carl Richards of www.behaviorgap.com provided a good reminder of how diversification works in a recent NY Times blog post. The diversification he discusses here is more so related to equity asset-class diversification but also touches on the three basic building blocks--equities, bonds, and cash. He doesn't discuss alternative asset classes -- an asset class that doesn't fit neatly into the three basic categories -- being used to further diversification, but that's a detailed topic for another day. ...
Read more

Should We Go Back on the Gold Standard?

By
If you watched the Republican presidential debates, you might have noticed that a number of  candidates yearn for a return to the gold standard—that is, that every dollar issued by the government would be backed by a comparable value in gold bars that were stashed away in a government vault. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas argued that the dollar should have a fixed value in gold, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky added that printing money without backing in the precious metal destroys the value of our currency. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, thinks that if not gold, then the dollar could be pegged to a basket of commodities. All are mostly concerned that printing money will cause runaway inflation.   But there may be several problems with this return to the fiscal system of the late 1800s and early 1900s. One is that inflation has barely budged even as the Federal Reserve Board was piling one QE stimulus on top of another, and the government was adding records amoun...
Read more

Why Smart People Make Dumb and Costly Mistakes With Money

By
"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."          Sir Isaac Newton, Response to the 1720 collapse of the "South Sea Bubble" Isaac Newton not only invented Calculus and discovered his Three Laws of Motion. Isaac Newton also lost a majority of his wealth in the South Sea Bubble, falling victim to behavioral mistakes investors make.  Research indicates that humans are not naturally wired for prudent, long-term investing. And if a genious like Isaac Newton falls victim, what are ordinary investors supposed to do? In the video accessible through the link below Scott Bosworth of Dimensional Fund Advisors describes common forms of behavioral bias and discusses how these biases influence investment decision making. He also explains how knowledge and discipline can help investors control their instincts for a better investment outcome. Click here to watch the video . (Approximate run time is 20 minutes.) ...
Read more